Will Solana usher in its glory summer?

Published on 8/27/2021   732 views   0 Comments  
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Packy McCormick, the chief manager of not boring, an overseas pan financial technology community, scanned Solana's agreement 360 in 20000 words from the aspects of technical principles, background stories and ecological development cases, and pointed out that Solana has won the "orthodox" position as a competitor of Ethereum with the support of SBF and a16z. Finally, he dialectically analyzed whether Solana would become successful and bring more activities and value to the decentralized network together with Ethereum (Analysis on the conditions of Solana taking a bull or a bear).

Perhaps we should learn from the author's attitude and not become a "religious believer" of a blockchain. Instead, we should fully consider the possibility of technology realization, community recognition, blessing of capital and other forces, and be more objective when participating in encryption community activities.
The following is an excerpt compilation, with some deletion. If you want to explore how Solana works and the consensus mechanism adopted by Solana, please read the original text:https://www.notboring.co/p/solana-summer


When I first planned to write this article, it was to let you know about an unknown blockchain, which is on the verge of explosion. But in cryptocurrency, everything changes in the blink of an eye. Solana is now a real competitor, and it is worthy of our very in-depth research to explain why it has come to the present and what is the next step. This article will introduce:

  • 2 core issues
  • Solana's story
  • Solana's orbit: human power
  • ecosystem
  • Case study: star atlas, saber, audius
  • How does Solana's value accumulate
  • Solana's bull market case
  • Solana's bear market case
  • Summer of Solana

In the final analysis, Solana's success or failure comes down to two problems


Core issues


When we are exposed to complex new technologies and learn new things, we can simplify the problem by asking two questions:

1. Can Solana persuade developers to build on Solana?

2. Can these developers attract users to use their products?

Solana web page: powerful developer; It's fast for everyone

In the short term, there are speculation, noise and blockchain tribalism, as well as debates on the trade-off between decentralization, scalability and speed. But in the long run, it all comes down to whether developers can attract and whether developers can attract customers. Anatoly has repeatedly said that with the establishment and operation of technology, the next stage is to & quot; Attract the next billion users & quot;.

According to the point that "only when you control the private key can you really participate in cryptocurrency", there are only millions of encryption users at present. It's still early for cryptocurrency and Solana. Even Solana's idea is only four years old.


Solana's story


In a program, Solana co-founder Anatoly said & quot; I've been manic for a week& quot; He realized that it was possible to build an arrow of time.

Anatoly is a hard core engineer. He has worked for Qualcomm for 13 years. His last position is senior engineer manager. In 2016, he left Qualcomm to work in mesosphere, which optimizes the IT infrastructure for enterprises. In 2017, he joined Dropbox and is once again committed to making the distributed system faster and more effective.

Therefore, Anatoly was fully prepared when cryptocurrency took off in 2017, creating millionaires and causing network congestion. In October, he enthusiastically realized that blockchain and communication network have the same problems, and they may have the same solutions.

I drank two cups of coffee and a beer until 4 a.m. I have this eureka moment. This puzzle is similar to the workload proof using the same SHA-256 antigen like hash function, rather than running it in this kind of large-scale parallelism. Use as much power as possible to find the answer as soon as possible. You are actually making that thing slow, recursive, and forcing it to run on a single core and single thread on the computer, You can force it to prove that it takes time, and there is a forced delay before you do an action. I know, I have this arrow of time.

This arrow of time is attractive in theory and important in practice. It represents a way to keep time between untrusted computers.Solana's websiteExplain& quot; Reliable clock makes network synchronization very simple. When synchronization is simple, the generated network can be fast and is only limited by network bandwidth& quot;

After working in Dropbox for only five months, Anatoly resigned to build his blockchain. By November 2017, he had written and publishedSolana white paperβ€ŒοΌŒ" Solana: a new architecture of high-performance blockchain & quot;. Then he began to raise money.

It was difficult to judge whether he would succeed. Venture capitalists say & quot; Dfinity, Polkadot, tezos and cosmos all have a lot of hype and a lot of funds& quot; Some cryptocurrency funds saw the vision and made commitments, but encountered the collapse of the cryptocurrency market. All potential Solana supporters withdrew.

Fortunately, from his conversation and more than ten hours of interview, Anatoly is not driven by money. He just wants to build cool things on technically feasible external restrictions. Anatoly and the team were just established when other blockchains went online.

Raj Gokal, Solana's chief operating officer, joined from the field of health technology in December 2017. In early 2018, Anatoly invited two former colleagues from Qualcomm,Greg FitzgeraldandStephen Akridge, start turning papers into products. Anatoly started programming in C, butGregConvince him to move to rust language. In February,GregWe began to prototype the open source version and released the first version at the end of the month.StephenIt is pointed out that they can improve throughput by processing signature verification on GPU. Several co founders with & quot; Loom " But soon changed its name to avoid confusion with another Ethereum based project, loom network.

In March, they named the company Solana because Solana beach is where Anatoly, Greg and Stephen surf together when they work for Qualcomm in San Diego.

Source: New York Times

2019 New York Times article on Solana BeachreportCall it a & quot; Desirable suburbs & quot;, And asked: & quot; But can you afford it& quot; As an extension here, several founders of Solana have great blockchain ambitions, but they have no money. Can they afford such an ambition?

In April 2018, Solana found its first supporter. Ramtin Naimi of abstract ventures, Chris McCann and Edith Yeung of 500 startups (Chris and Edith have now established race capital) participated in the seed round of the company.

When I asked McCann why he invested, he said he knew Anatoly when he worked in Greylock. Anatoly was an active member of Greylock's infrastructure engineering community at that time. He & quot; Impressive & quot;.

As early as 2018, people complained that cryptokitties blocked the network, Anatoly said, ' I think I can design a fix, which is easy '. Many people are building L1, which is the bifurcation of Ethereum. Anatoly invented a new technology to solve this problem.

This early confidence has paid off and now looks like one of the best venture capital investments ever( Race, rightFTX's 2019 seed round investmentToday, it is valued at $18 billion). according toReport from binance researchFinally, Solana passed$0.04 per tokenThe sale of its 16.23% token raised $3.17 million。

Source: currency security research

According to my calculations,The $3.17 million invested is now worth $5.8 billion. In a little more than three years, the return reached 1838 times and the internal rate of return was 820%, unheard of.

In the past three years, according toBinance research trackingIn addition, Solana made five token sales, except for the one announced by in June this yearA16z and polychainIn addition to the $314159265 token sales led by.

Although the price of a16z / polychain is not disclosed, it is likely to win a big discount by locking up its position for a long time. Investors, including the community (through coinlist) and verifiers, have done incredibly well.

In what ways did Solana succeed while other chains failed?

First, Solana differs from other chains in speed and throughput. Not only in the blockchain itself, but also in the rhythm of team building and product delivery. Noah Jessop points out & quot; I think they just got the point and made the platform faster than others& quot; Solana doesn't have anything tall. Their goal is to build the fastest network, hire a group of disheartened engineers, and then start construction to deliver better products faster.


Solana's orbit: human power


Technically, achieving high throughput and low cost is the key first step, but for the whole field of encryption, adoption is the focus. Bill SWO, a senior cryptographer and investor of launch code capital, views Solana as follows: & quot; Solana is one of the players who may become the mainstream chain because of what it is building (Technology) and the name behind it (people)& quot; Solana needs strong believers to achieve escape speed.

In Solana's early days, Anatoly had a huge vision from the beginning: to completely rebuild the New York Stock Exchange or NASDAQ on the chain. McCann explains, & quot; It's not just transaction or order book matching, but the whole system, from data to execution & quot;.

In July 2020, Solana ushered in the first major turning point: FTX, a cryptocurrency trading platform, announced that it would build its DEX and serum on the basis of Solana.

What kind of DEX is not important. What matters is who supports it. There are many DEX, but Sam bankman fried has only one.

Source:The Generalist

SBF is a trader's background. Early in his career, he was quantifying the giant Jane street Β  I spent it. His teams at Alameda Research (his quantitative trading company) and FTX (his centralized cryptocurrency exchange) are all financial practitioners: quantifiers, engineers and high-frequency traders. They don't care about the centralized / decentralized debate, but more about & quot; Can we do large-scale confirmation& quot;

Anatoly described Solana's first contact with SBF before the main network was launched (2019):

Nine months before our launch, we had a short conversation with FTX. We said, hey, you're building cool products. You have an emerging exchange. What if we do options or something interesting on Solana? They say, ' Is it feasible? We don't have enough time to do this. We have to deliver it tomorrow.

However, as soon as Solana went online, Anatoly found SBF again. He brought a demonstration:Breakβ€ŒοΌŒ" At the beginning of the transaction, the whole process is clearly displayed on the screen. You can see that they have been confirmed. These are smart contract transactions. You can look at the code& quot;

I sent 0.2sol to a break account (you need sol because these are real transactions) and tried it myself. It's crazy.

The black box represents the transaction I made by hitting the space bar. When it turns green, they are confirmed. In 15 seconds, I sent 80 real transactions through Solana.

Break Solana

When the results page is reached, 80 transactions are processed in an average of 4.02 seconds. The page points out that I only use 0.011% of Solana's capacity, and the same load will consume one third of Ethereum's capacity, 15% more than bitcoin's capacity.

SBF was so impressed that he showed break to his engineering team. The FTX team appreciates it, as Anatoly said, & quot; If you can really have a fast enough system to make a full-style central price limit order book, defi may get a 50% share of the world's finance, or 25% & quote;. The FTX team recognized Solana's potential to achieve this goal and decided to build a serum on it.

SBF's decision is like a coronation ceremony, announcing to the world: & quot; Solana is the most powerful blockchain & quot;. On July 26, 2020, the day before the announcement, the transaction price of sol was 1.77. By August 30, it had reached a peak of $4.78, an increase of 170% in a month.

More importantly, the blessing and participation of SBF will help attract other developers. In November 2020, Solana held its first hacking marathon, with more than 1000 developers registering and creating 60 projects.

When I talked with Dylan and Ian macalinao, CO founders of saber (the fastest-growing defi project on Solana), about why they chose Solana, they said they first focused on Solana in the first hacker marathon. Another co-founder of them called & quot; I've been following SBF for some time and was using FTX at that time. We see that Solana is a good trading system chain, and the people who used it at that time were traders& quot;

No other blockchain can meet what they want to do, but Solana was & quot; Experience the pain of growth. The documentation is poor, and you still need to write some template code & quot; So they decided to suspend the establishment of saber.

Again, the SBF universe passed. Earlier this year, Armani Ferrante, a developer of Alameda research, released anchor, an open source & quot; Solana's sealevel runtime framework provides several convenient Developer Tools & quot;. According to Dylan and Ian, anchor & quot; Reduce the code you need to write on Solana by 90% & quote;. Solana uses the rust programming language, but anchor makes it more like using the solid language, which is the most popular language in Ethereum.

Source:Anchor GitHub

In February, Solana held its second hacker marathon, namelySolana x serum defi hacker MarathonIn addition, the number of registrants was three times (3000) that of the first time, and the number of projects submitted was nearly two times (100) that of the first time. In April, saber team revisited Solana and chose to build there because the ecosystem, developer tools and support have taken off. In May, when Solana held its third hacker marathonSolana SeasonDevelopers' interest has exploded.

Source:BitDealer

Solana received more than 13000 registrations and 350 product submissions, an increase of 425% and 350% respectively in just three months. The speakers and judges of the event are celebrities from the field of encryption, which indicates that the industry increasingly recognizes Solana as a real competitor.

Speakers and judges of Solana season

If SBF helped Solana build early momentum, a16z it helped consolidate its legitimacy. In June, two days after the end of Solana season, the company announced a16z and polychain capital to lead a $314159 million token sale. SWO of launch code capital said that even in the cryptocurrency community that is skeptical of VC, & quot; A16z also has credibility in helping build the system early & quot;, He said a16z's participation made him more confident in Solana's sustainable development.

When you already have a publicly traded token with a market value of more than $10 billion, it seems unreasonable to raise funds from VC, but raising funds from a16z, polychain, Alameda and other well-known companies in the field is essentially marketing, just as traditional start-ups raise funds from top VC to help attract talents, partners and customers.

" This is not only about people, but also about Technology & quot; SWO said, & quot; Tokens are just a way to expand the network effect& quot; Once the network effect starts to turn, the blockchain will have its own life. Big coffee and excellent technology will attract investors and developers, and developers will attract users and more developers.

SBF and a16z give key votes of confidence and serve as catalysts to help Solana stand out from the crowd, but the long-term success of the blockchain will return to these two issues.

  1. Can they attract developers?
  2. Can these developers attract users?

At present, it looks good and the momentum is forming.


Solana ecosystem


Ben sparango, the strategic director of Solana, aims to establish a developer ecosystem and ensure that developers on Solana have the tools and resources they need.

  • Saber co founders said that Solana is unique in that they are good at helping the new company grow and provide services including:
  • Smart contract audit. Solana labs trains and assists third-party auditors to audit projects. Most projects on other blockchains need to pay for third-party audit.
  • Solana Libraryβ€Œγ€‚ Solana maintains something similar to an open source library. Projects can run around its front-end and business, including pledge pool, governance agreement, token project, domain name service (like Ethereum's ENS) and token transaction project (saber is built on it).
  • Solana capital. Solana invests in projects built on its agreements, and the Solana labs team introduces these projects to other investors and people who may be helpful.

Compared with other blockchain teams, Anatoly, Raj and Solana labs teams are more directly involved in promoting the development of ecosystem, which feels a little less decentralized, but the effect is very good.

according toSolaniansAccording to the statistics, this is what Solana ecosystem looked like in March

Source: Solanians

At that time, 78 projects were listed with three & quot; Coming online soon;.

This is what Solana ecosystem looks like in July, four months later

Source: Solanians

Solanians listed 181 projects, an increase of 130% over March.Solana websiteThere are even more items listed, 302, spanning 19 categories.

Everything is still developing. The chart does not even include the generate ape academy launched in August.

The surprising change in Solana is the breadth of use cases. Although Solana is best known for decentralized Finance (DFI), there has also been great growth in other categories, most notably applications and Games / NFTs.

To understand what is being built, let's take a closer look at three more promising projects.


Case study:Saberβ€Œ


After seeing the rapid maturity of Solana ecosystem, macalinaos decided to establish saber on Solana in April. Saber is a cross chain exchange that can facilitate asset transfer between Solana and other blockchains. By pairing assets with similar value, such as stable coins from different blockchains or encapsulated BTCs, saber:

  • Minimize transaction slippage
  • Eliminate volatile losses of liquidity providers

Since saber is built on Solana's existingToken Swap Program In fact, they were on the main line in less than three months (June 1).

At present, saber has a total value lock-in (TVL) of US $621 million, ranking third among all Solana projects, including Solana itself.

Source:SolanaProject

According to defilama's data, saber has ranked 40th among all defi protocols on all blockchains by TVL. Most of the leading defi projects are in Ethereum, with a total TVL of US $115 billion for Ethereum and US $2.46 billion for Solana (excluding Solana pledge).

In just one week, saber TVL increased from US $200 million to US $600 million, an increase of three times.


Case study:Star Atlasβ€Œ


Axie infinity makes $10 million a day playing this game. Axie is built on the Ethereum side chain ronin.

Solana also has its own hot game star atlas. At oncePodcast conversationIn, Michael Wagner, founder and CEO of star atlas, said that star atlas will be a large-scale multiplayer online metauniverse with space as the theme and one of the first AAA game experiences on the blockchain. He hopes to attract mainstream audiences. All audiences need to hold Solana based atlas or polis tokens to play.

In addition to just games, star atlas also creates financial incentives for players& quot; Every asset in the game should be NFT, from ships to crew to components to virtual land to the structure of these lands& quot; This will mean that players can use tokens in the game or convert their assets into other cryptocurrencies or legal tender on an open exchange.

Star atlas launches public token sales on FTX, raydium and applo-x.

Source: Star Atlas Discord

Both tokens are on sale.

  • Atlas: transaction currency in the game, which is used to pay operating expenses, purchase consumables, repair, refuel or upgrade ships. Atlas is the income that most people earn by playing games.Β 
  • Polis: governance token used in star atlas Dao and games. In the game, polis will be used for the purpose of strategy and political rule, such as politically controlling the space of some areas and setting taxes, fees and rules. Outside the game, polis is like a Dao governance token. The holder can decide long-term inflation and what space areas should be developed in the next step.

In the short term, the issuance of star atlas tokens will draw attention to the diversity and quality of projects under construction on Solana, and may promote the demand for tokens to buy atlas and polis. In the long run, star atlas hopes to create its own metaverse, with a lasting environment and a well functioning game economy. An economy needs fast, low-cost transactions to run smoothly.


Case study:Audiusβ€Œ


Audius is like the Soundcloud of Web3. Artists directly upload new tracks, mixes and live performances. It has gained a special position in the field of EDM, and many of the world's top electronic artists are using this platform. I've written about audius before:

Audius is a Web3 music streaming platform built on Ethereum and Solana. It issues and manages $audio tokens on Ethereum, but things that benchmark web2 functions such as upvotes and like run on Solana that can achieve high speed and low cost.

Audius has been trying. In July, its monthly active users (Maus) exceeded 5 million, compared with 3 million in March. Just last week, audius announced a partnership with tiktok. Artists can upload their songs for tiktok videos and bring traffic back to audius.

Source: CoinMarketCap

This caused the price of the $audio token to soar from $1.61 to a peak of $3.80. Its market value currently exceeds $1 billion.

All these activities - from projects such as audius and saber, to the increased trading volume of dexes serum and raydium, to the spirit catchers such as generate ape academy and star atlas, have increased the activities on Solana.

Source: Solana Beach

Since the launch of its main network in March 2020, Solana has had 24.9 billion transactions.

Since 2015, there have been 1.255 billion transactions in the whole history of Ethereum, and the whole history of bitcoin since 2009There is 6.646 on theBillion transactions. Solana handles several times the transaction volume of bitcoin and Ethereum in its short life cycle. However, as mentioned earlier, Solana charges very little transaction fees. How does Solana's value accumulate?


How does Solana's value accumulate


The cumulative value of so is similar to that of eth:

  • Value storage: sol is locked up as collateral for defi transactions. For example, you can take out sol to guarantee loans or provide liquidity for DEX.
  • Consumable assets: Although transaction costs are very low, users still consume sol, and these costs are given to stakers.
  • Capital assets: Sol serves as capital assets in several aspects. Owning sol is like owning the equity of Solana company. Once pledged, sol gives its owners the right to work for the network as verifiers (or entrust their shares to verifiers and share rewards), and has the right to charge the fees generated by the network.

Unlike eth, whose value mainly comes from gas costs, it is more complicated to consider how sol generates value. There are two main ways to make sol more valuable: stacking and MeV.


Staking


Stacking is a simple and complex problem.

For an ordinary user, stacking is very simple. If you own sol, you can pledge them to one of the verifiers through a wallet like phantom. Verifiers earn money from the security network through small transaction fees and more inflation. Solana mints tokens (up to 504.2 million sol cap) as a reward to the verifier. The more share they have, & quot; Leadership & quot; The more times, the more income. In order to attract more stacking, the verifier provides income to equity holders. For example, I invest sol in chorus one in exchange for 8% income.

How stacking makes sol more valuable is as complex as 3D chess.

There is a view that for POS networks, the value built on the chain needs to be less than the stacking value in the network, otherwise the verifier will attack the network to obtain the value built on it, because it is cost-effective. Theoretically, the greater the amount of stacking, the more secure the network is, because the less likely the verifier is to do evil.

Then, everyone in the network is motivated to ensure that the value of stacking is higher than the value of applications based on Solana. If you build your business on Solana, the only thing that can ensure the security of your business is the high price of sol. These projects can pay for security by purchasing and pledging more sol. If the project has a Dao with Treasury, like the plan of audius, or saber and star atlas, the Dao may say: & quot; It seems that the value of Dao will exceed the value of our pledged tokens, so we should invest 10% of the Treasury to buy and pledge more tokens& quot;

As more valuable projects are built on Solana, the value of pledged sol also needs to rise accordingly. Although this is correct in theory, it only takes effect to a certain extent. Most verifiers will not have malicious behavior. Importantly, this idea provides an opportunity for everyone in the sol ecosystemSchelling point(cryptocurrency people like Schelling point).

To achieve this point is simple: attract more developers and users. Everyone agrees that the value of stacking will need to be increased accordingly.


MEV


Another possible way for sol holders and market participants to obtain cumulative value is MeV.

Miner's extractable value (MeV) refers to the ability of miners to create value for themselves by setting the transaction sequence in the block. A typical working mode of blockchain is that users submit transactions, and these transactions enter a & quot; mempool", Miners select transactions to be included in the next block. Miners can sort freely in the block, usually based on gas price. Gas on Ethereum is divided into basic fee + tip. The person who needs to verify his / her transaction must pay a higher tip in order to move upward in the block.

Source:ChainLink

Miners can sort in such a way that they can trade in advance or extract value in other ways, and third-party robots can also obtain MeV by using transaction fees. For users, it may eventually lead to higher transaction costs or greater sliding points (if the robot runs ahead of your transaction, the price will rise).

If you have been paying attention, you will realize that the MeV risk on Solana is zero due to the poh consensus mechanism. Each transaction has its own timestamp, so the verifier cannot reorder it arbitrarily.

However, this does not mean that MeV will not occur on Solana, but users may be compensated for it. Anatoly described what might happen to us:

MeV means that the verifier has some information that they have calculated that "if you accept your instructions, you can make a profit". If the information you submit is useful enough for someone, they will pay you to accept the order. This is order flow payment (pfof) at the micro level, but in a fair and open market. It makes the spread of high frequency trading (HFT) a commodity.

In other words, instead of letting high-frequency trading companies control ultra fast and expensive computers and obtain a small amount of value through preemptive Trading (which is happening in today's market and makes ordinary traders pay a small amount of money), it is better to let the beneficiary parties compensate the person submitting the transaction, because the beneficiary parties benefit from the information disclosed by the person submitting the transaction. This is the way Web3 plays: cut off the middle and let each side get more value.

MeV and stacking are two unique ways for Solana to accumulate value to sol holders, but in the final analysis, the real and sustainable value will be generated by supply and demand.

With the establishment of new projects on Solana, more people need to buy more sol to use them. As more and more sol tokens will be pledged and locked in the defi protocol, this growing demand will reduce the supply of sol tokens. More demand and fewer tokens may mean higher prices.


Solana's bull market


The strength of Solana is that as more developers build on Solana and attract more users to join the network, it will make Web3 bigger and faster than expected. Faster, cheaper and smoother transactions will bring the next 1 billion users of cryptocurrency, who will need to buy sol and sol based tokens to participate.

Before studying this article, I think the bull market is that Solana will have more and more executive layers to achieve the large-scale growth of defi. This is a huge opportunity in itself. The financial service industry accounts for 20-25% of the world economy, and cryptocurrency is still in its infancy in seizing market share.

Before Solana, no blockchain was able to handle transactions close to the traditional financial market. According to bill SWO, & quot; Something like Solana opens up the potential to connect real-life assets, products and real value creation & quot;. He believes that in the next four-year cycle, we will reconsider putting everything on the blockchain. Better technologies like Solana make this idea feasible& quot; Low TPS is a factor limiting agency adoption & quot; He said & quot; However, 50K TPS or higher is very attractive to institutions. They can benefit from the decentralized platform and enjoy the speed provided by the central supplier& quot;

In fact, one of Anatoly's goals is to compete for share from traditional finance. He told me, & quot; We should compete with the New York Stock Exchange. I don't know whether it will be half or 5% of global finance, but now it is possible and worth doing on a global scale& quot; What would that look like?

As the executive layer of even 5% of the global financial market, this is an unimaginable huge opportunity for developers on Solana.

Greater opportunities have emerged. Solana will be able to accommodate a wider range of Web3 activities than finance and expand the impact of Web3 faster. Whether it's trading, NFT buying, or & quot; on audius; Post & quote;, Transactions can be confirmed immediately at little cost. Serum, saber, audius, star atlas and hundreds of other projects will become case studies to attract more developers, not necessarily from Ethereum, but also from traditional start-ups. The more trade-offs Solana eliminates, the easier it is for developers to choose Solana.

If this happens, sol will benefit from the huge demand from projects and users who need to purchase and mortgage sol, and the demand that the value of mortgage sol exceeds the value built on the network.

Although eth2 has been delayed long enough to make Ethereum developers frustrated, so that they may change jobs to Solana, this is not enough to be the reason why you are optimistic about Solana. I personally believe that we will eventually enter a world with high cross chain interoperability. We may see more projects. For example, audius is built on Solana and Ethereum at the same time. Solana is used for more frequent transactions, and Ethereum is used as the settlement layer. In a cross chain world, people can build on Solana and settle on Ethereum. Both chains will win from the activity of the whole activity.

Solana seems to have reached a turning point in the past two weeks. It has gained enough momentum, first its technology, then its participation in SBF and a16z, and the recent increase in developer activities. It will remain a key role in this field in the next few years.


Solana's bear market


However, everything could collapse. If we enter the bear market of cryptocurrency, Solana's rising momentum may be blocked and its market share may disappear.

In a bull market, people are willing to try new or even bad things. In a bear market, people may return to the most effective things and more mature ecosystems. Ethereum is currently slow and expensive, but it has a more mature ecosystem, a more accessible coding language (solidity), and better infrastructure and development tools. Moreover, it has such a strong network effect that it will survive even the worst recession.

The bear market may also scare traditional financial institutions, which most need Solana's special skills.

If the cryptocurrency market collapses and liquidity dries up, financial institutions may seize the opportunity to remind people of the benefits of centralized institutions. Artists and creators may stick to it, but most of them will still be in Ethereum anyway. The reconstruction of crypto winter may be carried out on the more familiar Ethereum, so as to reduce the chaotic transition to eth2. When cryptocurrency rebounds, eth2 may prove to be fast, low-cost and scalable enough. Coupled with the familiarity of developers and communities, the development of other chains may stop.

Even if crypto winter does not come, Solana has a smaller user base than Ethereum and bitcoin in an industry where the reward network effect is higher than anything else. If it can't get enough momentum before the merger of eth2, and if eth2 makes the transaction as fast and cheap as promised, builders may choose to do everything on Ethereum, execution and settlement, NFTs, games, defi and Dao, because there are more users, more builders and more money.

Solana's success in the frontal confrontation depends on several assumptions:

  • The executive layer is more valuable than the settlement layer.
  • It can be from eth or BTC & quot; Borrow & quot; POW security
  • Fragmentation broke the defi

But what if these assumptions don't prove true?

  • Although value flows to the execution layer in tradfi (AMEX, visa and NASDAQ are more valuable than their respective settlement companies), this may not be the case in the blockchain, and execution and settlement in the same place may have value. With visa, I don't need to consider the settlement. I just need to swipe my card. If I had to sell my Ethereum based assets and transfer usdc to Solana for execution, it might not be worth the trouble.
  • Perhaps executive level games such as Solana and polygon cannot "borrow" security from pow blockchain on a large scale, and people are willing to pay higher transaction fees for more security.
  • Although sharding theoretically makes the composability of defi more difficult (each shard may have different prices for assets), software may be able to solve this challenge, just as Anatoly solved a seemingly impossible parallelization challenge with poh.Β 

If fragmentation is the answer, Solana will face competition for its core advantages: speed, throughput and cost. The competition comes not only from Ethereum, but also from a wave of two-tier solutions such as L1 and polygon. Maybe the solution is something completely different, such as a ZK based protocol.

In addition, Solana is more vulnerable to state activity because the operation of the verifier takes up significantly more bandwidth than the pow system.

Finally, it is also very important that Solana ecosystem needs to go a long way to make the developer's experience as good as that on Ethereum. More open source front-end libraries are needed. Just look at many applications of Solana project and you will find that it is not so easy to establish a good user experience on Solana. In addition, more and better infrastructure needs to be built. Most large applications based on Solana, such as the generate ape academy and saber, have encountered problems.

If the key question is, & quot; Can you attract developers& quot; thatSolana's biggest survival risk is that it cannot attract enough developers to use its blockchain。 One developer I talked to said that heSmartestMost of my friends are still developing on Ethereum. In view of the composability and indexability of cryptocurrency, each new tool, Dao structure and protocol based on Ethereum means that the next developer has more reasons to develop on Ethereum. Each new project will add an open source smart contract library and extend Ethereum's leading edge.

In the bear market, Solana could not attract enough developers due to market conditions, eth2 or its own shortcomings, and these developers could not attract enough users to fulfill their commitments, while Ethereum continued to move forward.


Solana Summer


Source: Lollapalooza

I am not a god sect of so and so chain. I don't think Ethereum will dominate, nor do I think Solana will kill Ethereum. I think the two will bring more activities and value to the decentralized network together.

In June, neon labs made a deployment towards a cross chain future and built a compatibility bridge between Ethereum and Solana. Neon will allow us to run the Ethereum smart contract on Solana, which means that it is easier for developers to build applications that can run on both chains. Marina gureyeva of neon labs said:

Ethereum is a booming blockchain ecosystem that provides many tools and infrastructure for DAPP developers and users. At the same time, Solana is attractive to many people because of its technical characteristics and is considered an emerging market.

This is my language! Both chains are good in some aspects. The easier it is for developers to reach more users with a better experience, the faster Web3 will develop.

I believe more and more that Solana will be a great driving force for this growth.

When I first talked to Austin Federa of Solana lab about writing this article, there was a popular voice among Solana fans on Twitter: Solana summer. Everyone's profile picture has pit vipers. There was obviously a passionate community, but at that time, it felt like a small group of passionate people trying to cheer for the tribe that made them famous.

Only a few weeks later, Solana summer seemed to be an unusually predictable prediction. Solana has stood out from the players of POS eth killer and become a legitimate blockchain competitor alongside bitcoin and Ethereum.

Solana is hosting the latest hacker marathon. Loud Construction & quot;. The focus this time is on India.

Source: Solanians

For a product dedicated to bringing the next batch of 1 billion people into the open global market, more than 3000 developers from the world's second most populous country have applied, indicating the great potential in the future.

Cryptocurrency development focuses on potential energy and power. Tokens are almost like viblen goods. The more expensive they are, the more people want to buy them. The more developers build on the blockchain, the more developers want to build on the blockchain. The more excellent applications they build, the more users they will have.

Now, Solana has a good momentum. More and more smart people I know in the field of encryption are excited about it, and new and interesting projects appear every day. And I know that once people use it and feel the magic of high speed and low cost, they will add it to the rotation of cause.

As usual, my advice is not to buy assets (I'm not a licensed financial professional!), Instead, participate in the ecosystem, join the discussion group, find any interesting project among the 302 projects in Solana ecosystem, and conduct in-depth research. It is still very early. In the field of cryptocurrency, early participation is very important.

Do you think Solana will succeed and welcome Solana summer?


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