This article is from:Huatai Securities Research Institute, author: Huang Leping, Zhu Jun
Original title: Huatai | the road of meta universe with Chinese characteristics
Huatai's view: under the guidance of the government, industrial development is in the ascendant, moving towards the yuan universe road with Chinese characteristics
We believe that metauniverse is a core application that can integrate core technologies such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, blockchain, 5g communication, software engine, Internet, etc. In the past year's development, local governments in China have changed from cautious supervision to actively formulating rules, and then to establishing industrial clusters to encourage development, which is expected to replicate China's successful experience in panel, semiconductor, electric vehicle, photovoltaic and other industries. Through industry comparison, we believe that Chinese enterprises have significant comparative advantages in the fields of electronic manufacturing and communication infrastructure, but there are disadvantages in the fields of software engines, high-performance computing chips and so on. Strong regulation of content and virtual currency may affect the development track of metauniverse application in China. On the hardware side, we are optimistic about China's electronic manufacturing industry and communication infrastructure, and the application scenarios are optimistic about ar/vr content, digital virtual human, digital collections, car entertainment, etc.
Viewpoint # 1: the construction of industrial clusters led by local governments is a high-tech development road with Chinese characteristics
We see that the local government's construction of industrial clusters through guiding funds, industrial parks, demonstration projects and other forms is an effective way to support the development of emerging industries, and has created successful cases in Beijing Yizhuang intelligent driving industry, Shanghai artificial intelligence industry, Shanghai semiconductor industry, Hefei Electric Vehicle Industry and so on. From the cautious supervision of the government in the first half of 2021 to the active formulation of rules in the second half of 2021, and then to 2022, Beijing, Shanghai and other local governments have issued policies to support development, and their attitude is gradually clear. We believe that compared with the European and American governments, the Chinese government can mobilize more resources and have stronger executive power. After taking the initiative to enter the market, it is expected to form effective guidance and norms for enterprises. The hardware, software and ecological industries related to the meta universe are expected to continue to develop.
Viewpoint #2: China's comparative advantages and constraints in the development of the meta universe
From a global perspective, the core elements of the meta universe include four directions: interoperability system (arvr and other terminals), value settlement system (blockchain), information infrastructure (data center, cloud computing, communication optical module, edge computing), content production system (software engine, VraR content production, etc.). For China, we see that under the existing strict regulatory policies, transactions based on virtual currency and other related applications may be difficult to promote, and there is still a significant gap with the global leader in the fields of software engine (unreal, unity), operating system, high-performance computing chip (NVIDIA) and so on. However, China has comparative advantages in the fields of electronic manufacturing and communication infrastructure.
Viewpoint #3: applications are optimistic about vr/ar content, digital virtual human, digital collections, car entertainment, etc
We see that the meta universe scene is gradually landing: 1) in terms of vr/ar content, there is still a gap between Chinese VR games and overseas manufacturers as a whole, and with the overweight of large manufacturers, the ecosystem is expected to be improved; Ar content ecology is still in its early stage, and there is still room for improvement. 2) In terms of digital virtual human, it has been implemented in many fields such as live e-commerce, virtual customer service, news broadcast, entertainment live broadcast and marketing endorsement. 3) In terms of blockchain, digital collections are different from NFT. At present, China mainly focuses on collection value and enabling value, and the cultural exchange may help the development of secondary transactions; 4) In terms of on-board entertainment, we will cooperate with third parties to actively lay out on-board AR / VR entertainment, which is expected to land a new scene of metauniverse.
Viewpoint # 4: hardware is optimistic, electronic manufacturing and communication equipment enterprises occupy global advantages
At present, China's electronic manufacturing industry plays a leading role in the upstream supply chain of metauniverse (OEM, brand, optics), and has also accumulated deep experience in the field of communication infrastructure. We believe that the advantages of China's electronic manufacturing industry and communication infrastructure will continue in the development of the meta universe.
Risk tips: relevant policy changes, less than expected innovation, macroeconomic downturn, etc. in metauniverse.
The heat of the secondary market is fading out in the short term, and the Chinese government is optimistic about the medium and long-term development opportunities of the industry.With the gradual contraction of investment by meta, the pioneer of metauniverse, the secondary market's expectations for the rapid growth of VR shipments and the rapid expansion of metauniverse applications have been disappointed in the short term. In the first half of 2022, the stock prices of related targets at home and abroad have obviously retreated. However, we can see that: 1) although the concept of metauniverse is still controversial, overseas traditional financial and consumer enterprises, in addition to large scientific and technological enterprises, have also entered the Bureau. 2) domestic policy attitudes are gradually clear. Local governments have successively written metauniverse into government work reports, established industrial parks, established development funds, and guided the sustainable development of the industry. We believe that after a certain period of accumulation, the metauniverse industrial chain will see obvious development results.
The basic framework of the metauniverse is gradually clear.Globally, the metauniverse world will be composed of a series of elements including application, governance, identity and incentives, which need to be built on infrastructure. The main construction directions in the future include interoperability systems (arvr and other terminals), value settlement systems (blockchain), information infrastructure (data center, cloud computing, communication optical modules, edge computing) Content production system (software engine, VraR content production, etc.). China and overseas industrial chains have comparative advantages in different directions.
We believe that compared with overseas countries, the meta universe road with Chinese characteristics has the following characteristics:
1） The government takes the lead to guide industrial development.We can see that after the central government's attitude is clear, local governments have issued policies one after another to build industrial parks, set up special funds, introduce relevant enterprises and talents, and guide the development of the meta universe industry;
2） De virtual monetization.The Chinese government has a clear attitude towards virtual currency and NFT and strict supervision. We believe that in the metauniverse with Chinese characteristics, the use of NFT in trading will be different from overseas;
3） Hardware development has stronger comparative advantages.Relying on China's leading manufacturing capacity of consumer electronics, we can see that China has strong advantages in VR OEM, upstream optics, display, sensors, and even communication facilities, but there is still a gap in the main chip and content production system.
4） Various application scenarios are blooming.Under the guidance and support of the government, we have seen large technology companies enter the market one after another. In addition to building their own VraR brands, they are also exploring various application scenarios such as digital collections, VR games, digital virtual people, car entertainment, and industrial metauniverse.
Metauniverse is the most concerned and controversial topic at Davos forum, and the reaction metauniverse is still in its infancy.We saw that at the Davos forum held in May, 22, a special session was held for the first time to discuss issues related to the metauniverse. Peggy, CEO of magic leap, Philip, head of public affairs of LEGO Group, founder of secondlife, meta CPO Chris Cox, and scholars and entrepreneurs in sociology, engineering, and neurology attended the meeting. We obviously feel that metauniverse /web3 has replaced artificial intelligence as the most concerned and controversial topic on WEF. On the one hand, technology giants, sociologists, governments, participants and other stakeholders are giving full play to their creativity to explore; But on the other hand, due to the emergence of many malignant problems in the web2 era (hotbed of terrorism, cyber violence, fake news and videos, data security, addiction, separating the relationship between people and society in reality), some questioners still question the significance and security of the meta universe. These heated discussions reflect that the metauniverse is still in its infancy.
Establish a meta universe standard forum to discuss and unify industry standards.In June, 2022, Khronos group, which built the openxr standard, announced the establishment of metaverse Standards Forum. The first 36 participants included traditional technology hardware manufacturers such as meta and Microsoft, as well as platform manufacturers such as adobe and epic. In addition, there were blockchain companies represented by avatar and large consumer manufacturers represented by IKEA. According to the official website of Khronos group, as of July 18, 2022, the standard forum has more than 650 members, and relevant meetings on industry standard unification will be held later. Similar to the W3C industry standard unified in the early stage of Internet development, the completion of the unification of meta universe industry standard is a major catalyst for the development of meta universe industry.
Players from different industries such as technology hardware, content platforms, blockchains, and even consumption and finance have entered the meta universe.Major technology manufacturers include Microsoft, Sony, Google, chip manufacturers such as Qualcomm, NVIDIA, Intel, tool platform manufacturers such as adobe and blacksharkai provide meta universe asset production tools for digital twins and 3D modeling, engine platform manufacturers such as epic and unity provide engines for ingestion and processing projects, toy leader Lego is vigorously developing meta universe classroom, and sports manufacturer leader Nike has opened meta universe store, NFT technology is used to sell virtual sneakers. Manufacturers in catering, finance and other industries, represented by Wendy's and JPMorgan Chase, are also opening virtual stores in metauniverse to vigorously enter metauniverse.
The construction of industrial clusters led by local governments is a high-tech development road with Chinese characteristics, and there are many successful cases in history.In 2007, the guiding opinions on promoting the development of industrial clusters issued by the national development and Reform Commission was regarded as the first relatively standard methodology for the development of industrial clusters in China. The document proposed that the government should provide management, guidance and coordination services for industrial clusters, increase financial support and other basic policies. In the follow-up practice, local governments summed up the following conclusions: talent support, enterprise cultivation support, investment and financing support, R & D support Key support methods such as the combination of industry, University and research and the creation of industrial ecology. The methodology of industrial cluster development of local governments has been relatively mature, and many successful cases have been born in China:
1) Beijing Yizhuang intelligent driving cluster: in the initial stage, it attracted enterprises to settle in by approving the guidance policy for automatic driving test and providing preferential policies for automatic driving test environment. In the later stage, it further supported industrial development by creating an industrial ecology around automatic driving.
2) Shanghai AI cluster: in the initial stage, enterprises were attracted to settle in through "22 guiding policies" and preferential policies mainly providing 100 billion AI industry funds. In the later stage, a government enterprise academic grid collaboration system was built around the upstream and downstream of the AI industry.
3) Shanghai semiconductor cluster: in the initial stage, a complete semiconductor industrial chain was laid out to create scale effects. In recent years, policy combinations such as the science and technology innovation board and large funds have been continuously used to meet the differentiated growth needs of different links of the industrial chain and create a complete industrial cluster.
4) Hefei Electric Vehicle cluster: at the initial stage, it attracted enterprises such as Volkswagen and BYD through guiding policies such as the "support policy" and preferential policies such as financial subsidies for new energy vehicle enterprises. At the later stage, the government led the establishment of industrial alliances to continue to empower industrial clusters.
From the end of 2021, the attitude of China's central policy towards the meta universe has gradually become clear.In November 2021, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress began to discuss the legislation of metauniverse in the information protection law. In December, the State Council's "14th five year plan for the development of digital economy" said that the digital economy was promoting profound changes in the mode of production, lifestyle and governance. The Ministry of culture and tourism began to discuss the coordination mechanism of related work of metauniverse, The Commission for Discipline Inspection said that it should "rationally view the new round of technological revolution and its impact on society brought about by the meta universe, do not underestimate the opportunities in 5-10 years, and do not overestimate the evolution and changes in 1-2 years ". In December 2021, the central bank issued the financial technology development plan (2022-2025), saying that it would" deeply integrate augmented reality (AR), hybrid reality (MR) and other visual technologies with banking scenes based on offline and relying on 5g high bandwidth and low delay characteristics ". In January 2022, the Ministry of industry and information technology said that it would "cultivate a number of innovative small and medium-sized enterprises that enter emerging fields such as metauniverse, blockchain, artificial intelligence".
De virtual monetization is the boundary of the Chinese government's meta universe policy, and digital asset speculation is strictly regulated.Overseas began to use NFT technology to generate digital assets as early as 2017. The transaction volume of virtual currency (such as Ethereum) increased with the increase of the number of NFT works, and the related transactions began to become universal. The domestic government made it clear in September 2017 that token issuance and financing is an illegal act. In May 2021, it issued an announcement requiring financial institutions and Payment institutions to strictly prohibit virtual currency trading business. In addition, China has restricted the speculation of digital assets in many aspects, such as audit, payment and trading. The central bank has issued strictly regulated digital RMB to ensure the controllability of digital asset transactions.
With the change of the attitude of the central government, the policies of local governments to support the yuan universe have come one after another.Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Hainan and other places have issued policies one after another to build yuancosmos Industrial Park, set up a master fund, introduce talents and related enterprises, and support the ecological sustainable development of yuancosmos industry. In December, 2021, the "14th five year plan" for the development of Shanghai's electronic information industry, Shanghai, for the first time included yuancosmos in the local government work report; In January 2022, the mayor of Wuhan proposed in the "government work report" that we should accelerate the expansion of the digital industry and promote the integration of the yuan universe and the real economy; The mayor of Hefei also mentioned in the "government work report" that in the next five years, he will look forward to the layout of future industries, aim at frontier fields such as metauniverse, and create a number of leading enterprises, cutting-edge technologies, and high-end products. As of July 2022, the local governments of at least seven provinces and 17 cities in China have issued relevant construction plans for the yuancosmos industry, including Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing, Wuxi, Chaozhou, Langfang, Baoding, Sanya, etc., which have or will clearly carry out relevant work.
Beijing: build a "1+n" industrial cluster with TongZhou Zhangjiawan yuancosmos innovation center as the core.The Beijing government takes Zhangjiawan as the innovation center of technology and application, and the surrounding Songzhuang Art District, canal business district and other places as the landing areas of technology and application. The upstream and downstream layout of the industry is complete. At the same time, the Beijing municipal government uses the 100 billion level "master Fund + direct investment" to provide investment and financing support to enterprises, and gives rent financial subsidies to the settled yuancosmos enterprises to escort the start-up period of the settled yuancosmos company. In addition, the Beijing municipal government has also strengthened internal and external exchanges through industrial cooperation activities such as the establishment of industrial alliances and international forums, and provided financial, financial and legislative support to outstanding metauniverse talents and teams.
Shanghai: build a yuancosmos industrial highland and attach importance to the synergy of industrial alliances.At present, the Shanghai government has launched a series of supporting policies, such as the Caohejing and Zhangjiang digital chain two yuan universe characteristic parks and the 10 billion yuan universe industry fund, with the intention of developing the basic capabilities of the core technologies of the yuan universe, such as cloud computing + edge computing, artificial intelligence + big data, while upgrading the digital format, providing business, entertainment, industry and other landing scenes for the yuan universe technology, and building Shanghai into the highland of the yuan universe industry. In addition, the Shanghai government is actively building an industry university research integration industrial alliance. At the press conference of the Shanghai municipal government held on July 8, the Shanghai Municipal Commission of economic and information technology said that it would create 10 leading enterprises with international competitiveness and 100 specialized and special new enterprises with core technologies. By 2025, the industrial scale of the city's yuancosmos will exceed 350billion.
Hangzhou: develop XR industry with sufficient policies.Hangzhou first built a 40000 square meter industrial park with "core and boundless" to extend the R & D chain and industrial chain towards the Yangtze River Delta. According to the website of Yuhang District Government of Hangzhou, it will provide full chain investment and financing services for settled enterprises by establishing an industrial fund of 1 billion yuan and a risk pool of up to 5 million yuan for a single project, and accelerate the transformation of enterprise technological achievements. The Hangzhou municipal government will also open a batch of XR application scenarios every year, and give the settled enterprises the priority of government procurement to accelerate the implementation of industrial applications. In addition, the Hangzhou municipal government has more preferential policies for talent introduction, XR patent pre-trial, intellectual property rights protection and other aspects.
Hainan: pay equal attention to internal incubation and external enterprise co construction, and explore a new mode of meta universe development.The Hainan government issued the "work report of Haikou Municipal Government in 2022", which included the construction of yuancosmos as a key work. The government will speed up the development of key parks, such as the Fuxing City Industrial Park, accelerate the construction of international digital port, national cultural export base, national blockchain technology and industrial innovation and development base, yuancosmos industrial base, integrated circuit public service platform and other projects, and expand the innovation and entrepreneurship space of young people. On the other hand, the Hainan government cooperates with Netease and other heavyweight players of metauniverse to jointly build a metauniverse industrial base to meet the differentiated needs of enterprises. Netease Hainan International Digital new cultural and creative center is the first metauniverse industrial park built by the government and enterprises in China, which provides materials for the government to explore the construction and development mode of metauniverse.
Ar/vr content: VR games, social networking and live broadcasting are booming, and AR has great room for improvement
#1 the overall development of VR games in China lags behind that of overseas countries, and the rise of domestic hardware is expected to drive ecological improvement
Globally, the head effect of VR games is obvious, and 3a works are mainly made by large foreign manufacturers.At the 2021 connect conference, Zuckerberg said that the game is the first scene for a large number of users to contact the metauniverse, and major manufacturers are using it as a breakthrough to enter the metauniverse track. At present, the head effect of VR games is quite obvious. According to steam's official website, from January to August 2022, half life: alyx and beat saber basically ranked in the top 2 of steam's hot sales list, and it is difficult to be surpassed in a short time. Judging from the platinum list of steamvr exclusive games in 2021, 3A masterpieces are all made by large overseas manufacturers, and there is still a certain gap between the overall R & D level of domestic and international manufacturers.
The overall development of VR games in China lags behind. We believe that the main reasons are:1) Compared with foreign countries, the quality and shipment of VR hardware in China are lower, the number of VR consumers is smaller, and the consumption mentality is not mature, so it is difficult for content manufacturers to make profits; 2) The transformation time of domestic large manufacturers is generally later than that of overseas large manufacturers, and content manufacturers are relatively less supported; 3) The version number of VR Games has not been set in China, and the content of VR games is mixed.However, we also see that some Chinese content manufacturers have made outstanding performance, and the emergence of many games shows that Chinese manufacturers still have a certain R & D strength.
The overweight layout of large domestic manufacturers, acquisition + self-research have injected impetus into the development of VR games.We believe that with the continuous investment of large manufacturers, domestic VR game content is expected to develop rapidly.
#2. VR live broadcast is in the ascendant, taking the road of meta universe content with Chinese characteristics
Compared with overseas, the domestic live broadcast ecosystem is more perfect and more accepted. Taking live broadcast as the entry point, we will continue to enrich VR content.
3 # VR social networking is still in the primary stage, product iteration and continuous enrichment of playing methods
At present, VR social networking is mainly led by overseas manufacturers, such as horizon worlds under meta, rec room and vrchat, but domestic manufacturers are also accelerating the layout.
#4. The AR game ecosystem is not yet perfect, and China's major manufacturers' products continue to promote, and there is still much room for improvement in the long term
Globally, at present, the AR game ecology is not mature, and the market is mainly driven by the popularity of Pok é mon go, Enix & # x27; s Dragon Quest walk and so on. According to omdia's data, due to the decline of head products, the global ar game revenue is expected to be $1.57 billion in 2022, lower than $1.99 billion in 2019. Omdia predicts that the global ar game revenue is expected to reach $3.17 billion in 2027, with a CAGR of 15.1% from 2022 to 27. Ar mobile games of large Chinese manufacturers are still being promoted, but the scale and volume are relatively small. In the long run, we believe that with the promotion of consumer ar products and the upgrading of game playing methods, there is still much room for improvement.
Digital virtual human: e-commerce / marketing / live entertainment and other fields have landed and entered the fast lane of development
#1. Driven by supply and demand and catalyzed by policies, the development of domestic digital virtual human has entered the fast lane
Digital virtual human is a virtual character with digital shape, whose characteristics include: 1) virtual: it exists in non physical world such as pictures, videos, VR devices, etc; 2) Digital: it is created and used by computer means such as computer graphics, graphics rendering, motion capture, deep learning and speech synthesis. 3) human: it has multiple human characteristics such as appearance, performance and interaction.
Looking forward to the future, with the maturity of technology, the rise of new consumption, and the superposition of policy catalysis, the development of domestic digital virtual human is expected to enter the fast lane.In terms of supply, CG, AI, mobile capture and other technologies have gradually matured, the threshold has been reduced, and the cost has fallen; The shipments of VR and other related supporting equipment have increased, and large domestic manufacturers have stepped up their layout. In terms of demand, generation Z users have risen to become the first fans of meta universe virtual content. At the same time, the epidemic has promoted offline scene virtualization, and national self-confidence has led to the consumption of Chinese style and national fashion digital people. In terms of policies, since 2021, a number of policies have been conducive to industrial development. In March 2021, the state included the development of virtual digital technology into the "14th five year plan". In October 2021, the "14th five year plan" for scientific and technological development of radio and television and network audio-visual was issued. In November of the same year, the "14th five year plan" for the development of information and communication industry was issued. A number of policies have promoted the application of digital virtual human technology in virtual anchor, news broadcast, program production The landing of multi industry consumption scenarios.
#2. The domestic service-oriented / identity based cash realization methods are different, and the space is expected to reach 270billion yuan by 2030
The application value and realization mode of service-oriented virtual human, virtual ip/ idol and virtual avatar are different. 1) Service type virtual person:It can be widely combined with various industries. The main landing scenarios are e-commerce, virtual live broadcasting, TOC services, etc. Service-oriented virtual human can reconstruct the content production mode, improve the production efficiency and quality of digital content, and also serve as the starting point of digital transformation, helping enterprises improve the quality and efficiency of production and operation;2) Virtual ip/ Idol:It is mainly implemented in the cultural and entertainment fields such as brand endorsement, virtual concert and virtual live broadcast, and realized through the modes of advertising, release of single records, live broadcast fans' rewards, etc., so as to redefine the fan economy and help the brand spread out of the circle quickly;3) Virtual avatar:It mainly lands in the social and game of the meta universe, and will become the interactive carrier and entrance of the meta universe, and it is the basic element of the meta universe.
According to qubit prediction, the market scale of China's digital virtual human will reach 270.3 billion yuan in 2030, of which the service-oriented / identity based digital virtual human will be 95.5 billion yuan and 174.7 billion yuan respectively. Among the identity based digital virtual people, virtual IP will dominate the market. In 2030, the space is expected to reach 148.7 billion yuan, and the virtual avatar is about 26 billion yuan.
1) Service-oriented virtual human
Simple interactive: virtual anchor and virtual customer service are developing rapidly, and live broadcast e-commerce is the landing direction with Chinese characteristics
Virtual anchor: the live broadcast e-commerce with Chinese characteristics has been rapidly launched, which is expected to reduce costs and increase efficiency.The e-commerce platform has a strong demand for live broadcast goods, while the cost of virtual personification is controllable and can be on standby for 24 hours. At present, the virtual anchor has been widely used to interact with the audience through AI, effectively improving the live broadcast sales.
Virtual customer service has gradually become a trend, taking the lead in the financial field.Virtual human can upgrade business knowledge faster based on knowledge map, data iteration, etc. Under the existing technical conditions, the customer service scenario with relatively clear business needs and rules and processes has become an ideal way for digital virtual human landing. The financial sector is becoming a major application industry due to its high acceptance of new technologies and its ability to bear the current customer unit price of millions of yuan. Some banks have launched digital virtual human projects and applied them to online and offline services. We believe that virtual customer service can not only reduce costs and increase efficiency, but also shape a new service concept and convey the unique image of the enterprise. The introduction of virtual human customer service has become a popular trend.
Content production: news broadcast as the main scene
The digital virtual human content generation platform takes news broadcast as the main scene.The content production virtual human reconstructs the content production mode and improves the production efficiency and quality of digital content. Domestic manufacturers include volcanic engine, Xiangxin technology, 8.8 digital, Xinhua Zhiyun, etc. the self-developed platform takes news broadcasting as the main scene. The user only needs to input the content to be broadcast into the platform, and select the host image, voice color and background to quickly generate relevant broadcast videos. Users can use the time axis to adjust the actions of the digital virtual human. Some products also support inserting the demonstration panel and adjusting the position according to the time axis, and finally generate a video with illustrations and explanations.
2) Virtual ip/ Idol: live broadcast, endorsement as the core landing scene
Live broadcast field
The number of domestic ip/ idol virtual anchors has increased rapidly, and the commercialization and realization path is clear.IP / Idol virtual anchor is the first to develop pugc ecology in the live broadcast field. IP virtual anchor has been widely introduced in large domestic platforms.
Ip/ idol type virtual anchor mainly relies on live broadcast with goods and rewards from fans.
Virtual endorsements help the brand improve the efficiency of getting customers.The virtual spokesperson can be divided into two types: 1) the brand customized virtual spokesperson that fully conforms to the brand concept; 2) The virtual KOL, which has a large number of fans, generates income through commercial cooperation with brands. The commercial value of the virtual spokesperson is reflected in: 1) growth: most of the digital virtual people were born less than two years ago, but the social accounts have rapidly increased in popularity, and the digital virtual people will not grow old and collapse, and will continue to expand their influence; 2) Help the brand to improve the efficiency of getting customers: digital virtual people break the dimensional wall, can conduct brand marketing in a more diversified and high-frequency way, bring more imaginative and perfect marketing scenarios for fans, help the brand break the circle, and release more commercial value.
The brand customized virtual spokesperson accurately conveys the brand tone and is close to the Z generation consumer group.The brand exclusive virtual spokesperson can accurately and clearly convey the brand concept, solve the problem that it is difficult for the real person spokesperson to hold the brand stably for a long time and the brand side to accumulate its own traffic, and make it easier for the marketing to break through the young circle.
Virtual KOL is more flow oriented, and it is the first in the field of beauty and fashion wear.The virtual human KOL appeared as a model and online celebrity, and has accumulated a lot of attention on the platform with short videos and "hard photos" as the main communication carriers
3) Avatar: take next generation social networking and metauniverse as the main track
Domestic game manufacturers already have digital human automatic generation technology, and the flexibility of face pinching tools continues to improve.At present, the face pinching tools in the game are gradually mature and the customizable space is constantly improved. According to qubit, the core of virtual avatar lies in interaction quality, that is, it finely reflects a series of elements such as user's position, appearance, attention and emotion, and provides users with a sense of existence based on their second identity. The face pinching tool in the game can only provide a low degree of reduction of the plane image. We believe that social networking and metauniverse will be used as more in-depth application scenarios of virtual avatar. With the gradual maturity of the metauniverse infrastructure, the second avatar will usher in rapid development in the next generation of social networking and metauniverse, and fully meet the users' needs for avatars with a sense of reality and immersion.
Digital collection: different from NFT, the policy is gradually improved, and the cultural exchange may help the secondary development
#1 overseas: NFT transactions in 2022 will cool down in the short term, but the number of buyers and sellers is still high
The full name of NFT is "non-homogeneous token". Its "non-homogeneous" means that every NFT is unique, indivisible and non replicable. The works cast into NFT will become unique digital assets on the blockchain with open, trusted and decentralized characteristics. The corresponding is "homogeneous token", including RMB, US dollar, and bitcoin in the cryptocurrency field.
From 2020 to 2021, the transaction volume of NFT increased rapidly, and the growth was driven by head projects.According to cryptoslam, since 2020, NFT trading volume has increased rapidly, reaching 32 / 19.7 billion US dollars in 2020 / 2021, with an increase of 931% and 61968% respectively. From the perspective of market characteristics, NFT transactions are mainly driven by head projects. According to nonfungible, the top5 projects with trading volume accounted for 52.3% of the market share in 2021.
NFT trading volume has declined since 2022, but the market acceptance is still high.According to cryptoslam, the transaction volume of NFT in June 2022 was US $850million, down 72.3% month on month; The trading volume of 2q22 was US $7.63 billion, down 27.1% month on month. We believe that the reasons for the decline of NFT's global popularity include: 1) the recent retreat of cryptocurrency prices, and the strong correlation between NFT and cryptocurrency prices; 2) The Fed raised interest rates, the global macro-economy weakened, and NFT was affected by its strong financial attributes; 3) There are relatively few popular projects. But at the same time, we also see that although the transaction volume of NFT has decreased, the number of buyers and sellers remains high, indicating that NFT's market acceptance is still high.
#2 China: the supervision mechanism of digital collections is gradually improved, and the cultural exchange hopes to help the development of secondary transactions
The central media has made a clear distinction between digital collections and NFT, affirming the positive value of digital collections.Since June 2022, China People's daily and people's daily have successively published articles on "making good use of digital collections to expand application scenarios", "building a digital foundation for a cultural power" and "digital collections = NFT? Are related and more fundamentally different", which fully affirmed the positive value of Digital Collections, encouraged the application of high-quality scenarios in the digital economy and enabled the real economy.
Domestic digital collections are quite different from foreign NFT.According to people.com and yiou think tank, the main differences between digital collections and NFT include: 1) digital collections are based on alliance chain, while NFT is based on public chain; 2) Digital collections must be reviewed for content and positioned as digital publications, while NFT does not need to be reviewed; 3) Digital collections emphasize the value of collection and copyright, while NFT monetizes works and has strong financial attributes; 4) Digital collections are traded in RMB, and NFT uses cryptocurrency; 5) Digital collection real name settlement, NFT can be anonymous settlement; 6) The rise and fall of digital collections are controlled, limiting the trading platform and frequency, while the rise and fall range of NFT is relatively loose; 7) Domestic platforms adopt the invitation system, which only allows creators invited and cooperated by the platform to participate in the distribution of digital collections. Products are mainly PGC, and overseas opensea and other platforms are open to the public. Anyone can create NFT collections, with a low threshold.
NFT and digital collection policies take anti speculation as the main line, and the self regulatory convention is expected to guide the healthy development of the industry.The domestic regulatory policy on NFT has been relatively strict. The state has introduced a large number of policies to regulate the prevention of the risks of virtual currency transactions, such as the notice on rectifying the mining of virtual currency and dealing with the speculation of virtual currency transactions. On June 17, 2022, Xinhuanet, Shanghai Cultural Property Exchange and other institutions jointly issued the business specifications of the digital cultural and creative governance ecological matrix convention. The Convention emphasizes that the relevant intellectual property rights of digital cultural and creative should be legal, complete, effective and have clear ownership. It is not allowed to carry out risk businesses such as NFT non-homogeneous tokens in the name of digital cultural and creative products in violation of regulations and disguised forms, and it is not allowed to provide centralized trading for digital cultural and creative products. We believe that the Convention once again emphasizes the importance of preventing speculation and financial risks, which is conducive to the standardized management of the digital collection industry and will guide the steady and orderly development of the industry.
From the perspective of industrial chain, the main players of China's digital collections include infrastructure, project creation and distribution and trading platforms.In terms of infrastructure, several platforms released the national copyright transaction protection alliance chain; In terms of project creation and distribution, the content platform continues to be deployed in the fields of IP creation, copyright and distribution.
Large factories have launched their own alliance chain, and Xinhuanet has jointly released a national copyright transaction protection alliance chain with several institutions.At present, the domestic digital collections are mainly launched based on the alliance chain. The alliance chain technology is mature and safe and controllable, but there is no circulation and transaction between the alliance chains. On June 17, 2022, Xinhuanet, Shanghai Cultural Property Exchange and other institutions jointly released the national copyright trading protection alliance chain, realizing cross chain mutual recognition with the financial blockchain and the judicial blockchain, providing non tamperable, distributed and highly reliable copyright certification for cultural and creative products. It is expected to continue to expand the trading radius of digital collections and help the development of China's digital cultural industry as an infrastructure.
There are many kinds of digital collections in China, which have great potential in IP, marketing, intellectual property protection and other fields.In the field of culture and entertainment, digital content industries such as music, film and television, games and digital collections are relatively consistent on key issues such as property rights. Industrial IP can be transformed into a form of digital collections, and IP influence can be diversified to strengthen operations.
On the whole, domestic secondary trading is limited, and there are great differences between digital collection platforms and overseas NFT trading platforms in business model, trading currency and creative form.1) Business model: in order to avoid the risk of speculation, domestic platforms generally do not support secondary transactions, and all adopt the real name system; 2) Transaction currency: domestic platforms adopt RMB transactions, while overseas platforms adopt cryptocurrency transactions; 3) Creators: all domestic platforms adopt the invitation system, and only creators invited and cooperated by the platform are allowed to participate in the distribution of digital collections, and the works are partial to PGC; Opensea and other platforms are open to the public, and anyone can create NFT collections, with a low threshold.
Car entertainment: expected to become a new scene for AR / VR landing
With the rapid growth of new energy vehicles, on-board entertainment is expected to become a new scene for the implementation of the meta universe.Car entertainment ar/vr system refers to an immersive entertainment experience that combines car mobile data and ar/vr immersive content to provide passengers with an immersive entertainment experience suitable for car sports. According to the statistics of the Ministry of public security, as of June 2022, the national car ownership reached 310 million, including 10.1 million new energy vehicles, an increase of 66% year-on-year, accounting for 3.2% of the total number of vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of +1.2pct. We believe that with the integrated development of vehicle electrification, networking and intelligence, the importance of on-board entertainment has increased, and it is expected to become a new scene for AR / VR.
#1. A stone from another mountain: looking at the car AR / VR entertainment business model from holoride
Founded in 2019, holoride, as a developer of VR in car entertainment experience, focuses on providing passengers with customized entertainment content integrated with real-time car sports. After wearing the head mounted display, holoride's vehicle positioning software can synchronize the virtual content with the vehicle's motion, position and map data in real time, so as to realize the immersive VR driving experience and reduce carsickness. Meanwhile, by introducing blockchain technology, ride coin and NFT to enhance the ecology and content supply of its platform, holoride has established a "ride play earn" cycle to encourage users to participate in car entertainment activities. As a publisher, holoride sells different types of content subscription packages to users.
Holoride develops four core components to provide users with all-round vehicle VR services. 1）holorideAPP：Holorideapp can be run on the XR equipment of passengers (such as VR helmet, etc.) to facilitate the connection of car positioning data after passengers get on the train;2) Vehicle positioning system:Synchronize the movement, position and route of the car with the user experience in real time to ensure the matching between the on-board entertainment content and the car movement;3）ElasticSDK：Through close cooperation with leading game studios, use existing game engines to design, test and deliver vehicle mounted VR content development kits. The SDK enables content creators to quickly develop VR content for mobile vehicles, eliminating technical and business complexity, and making it possible to rapidly expand business scale.4) Holoride platform:Connect car manufacturers, content creators and passengers, and provide necessary web services, tutorials and documents.
Holoride vehicle VR entertainment project has cooperated with many parties to gradually expand the market space of vehicle VR entertainment system.According to the official website of holoride, holoride was officially launched in the autonomous driving and digital business department of Audi in 2015, and was separated from Audi in 2019. The official website of holoride shows that at present, holoride has cooperated with leading automobile manufacturers such as Audi, Porsche, Mercedes Benz and Ford. From June 2022, Audi MIB 3 will fully support holoride VR driving entertainment; In February, 22, holoride announced its cooperation with HTC vive, and the company is expected to launch an on-board XR application on vive flow devices within the year. In terms of VR content, holoride has worked with content creators such as Disney and universal pictures to provide the public with the highest quality films.
The incremental parts brought by the meta universe are gradually clear.We can see that in the construction of infrastructure in the meta universe, a large number of components and infrastructure are similar to those in the era of mobile phones and the Internet. The incremental part mainly includes: 1) high-performance computing chips and communication infrastructure required by the cloud, 2) a large number of optical devices (lenses, modules, image sources, cameras and other sensors) at the arvr end.
Chinese optical enterprises have been in the market for a long time and have rich product pipelines.According to the virtual (augmented) reality white paper of the Institute of information and communication technology, with the accumulation of product power in the era of mobile phones and consumer electronics, Chinese optical enterprises continue to expand their layout to arvr related hardware:
1) Camera sensor: Quest 2, the current mainstream product, is equipped with four black-and-white cameras for head and hand 6DOF tracking, which is independently provided by Chinese enterprises. At present, Chinese enterprises are deploying a variety of camera technologies such as color perspective, gesture recognition, eye tracking, face recognition, etc., and subsequently or successively implementing them on VraR products;
2) Micro display technology: the micro oled/lcos technology with arvr head display is relatively mature, and the micro LED technology is still being explored. Chinese enterprises have layout in related businesses;
3) Optical modules: the Fresnel lens and pancake modules used by Chinese enterprises in the current VR occupy the main supplier position, and the birdbath module and optical waveguide module used in AR have mature layout.
VR OEM takes the lead, which is expected to cooperate with large technology manufacturers to produce more excellent independent brands.We believe that in the VR OEM industry, China's consumer electronics manufacturers are in a leading position in terms of understanding and design ability of system design, which may help to cooperate with large technology manufacturers and generate more excellent independent brands.
Communication is an important infrastructure for the development of metauniverse.According to the characteristics of "low delay and immersion" of the metauniverse, 5g high-speed and low delay support a large number of application innovations of the metauniverse. In the future, the deep integration and development of network and computing in the 6G era will achieve efficient collaboration at the cloud side and bring the ultimate experience to users. As the basis of transmission, optical module will iterate from 400g to 800g to meet the continuous growth of network bandwidth and realize the smooth transition of network architecture; Edge computing is the main part of computing power. According to the data of GIA, the global market scale will increase from US $3.4 billion in 2020 to US $15.2 billion in 2026.
The macroeconomic downturn has an impact on demand.Under the influence of the Federal Reserve's continued interest rate hike, geopolitics and other factors, the U.S. GDP has fallen for two consecutive quarters, the European economy is sluggish, and the global macro is still in a downward cycle, which will have a negative impact on the demand for optional consumer types such as electronic terminals.
The development of technological innovation is less than expected.Metauniverse is driven by core technologies such as artificial intelligence, semiconductor, blockchain, 5g communication, software engine and Internet. Technological innovation encounters a bottleneck and its development is not as expected, which may lead to the growth of the meta universe industry being trapped and the development pace being slower than expected.
Relevant policies of metauniverse have changed.The development of the meta universe with Chinese characteristics is mainly led by the government. If the wind direction of the government policy changes, the development progress of China's yuan universe related industries may be affected.