The meta cosmic boom has subsided? Roblox, unity and meta's results were not optimistic

Published on 1 Weeks ago   85 views   0 Comments  

Source:Huasheng securities

Original title: has the upsurge subsided? Is the "meta universe" the future or a foam

On May 10, us time, roblox and unity, two "meta universe" concept stocks, announced their first quarter results after the closing of US stocks. In terms of after hours performance, unity plummeted by nearly 30%, roblox fell by 4.44%, and it has fallen by about 80% according to the peak. Even the stock price of meta, the leading company of "meta universe", is nearly halved. Has "meta universe" gone out of tide? This paper will analyze the financial statements of roblox, unity and meta companies.

1ใ€ A number of data of roblox were less than expected, and the profit model was questioned

Market source: Huasheng securities

According to the financial report, roblox's first quarter sales increased by 39% to $530 million, less than the market expected $646 million. The company reported a net loss of $160 million. Roblox's latest closing price was $23.19, down 82.79% since the high of $141.6.

Roblox's core users are generation Z, and about 70% of its daily active users are aged 5 to 24. Therefore, many investors question: how does roblox make high profits from young users?

Roblox's answer is to expand its influence and continue to attract new users through cooperation with well-known brands. Roblox previously launched nikeland with Nike. The purpose is to attract a new generation of young users, with built-in sports themed games. Nike digital virtual shoes, clothing and accessories can be purchased in nikeland. In the past period of time, roblox has successively cooperated with Sony Music, Warner Music, the National Football League and so on.

During the outbreak of the epidemic, roblox's growth rate was surprising, but on the other hand, after the travel restrictions were generally liberalized in Europe and the United States, a significant decline in users' playing time was inevitable. In a letter to shareholders, roblox also confirmed this point: compared with Q1 in 2021, daily active users spend less time on roblox than before, and the company's revenue is highly related to the time spent by users.

From the financial report data of the past five quarters, roblox's performance growth rate is declining, whether it is revenue or dau; Even total income (including income, deferred income and other adjustments) showed negative growth.

Source: roblox earnings

2ใ€ The annual performance guidance was "Thunderstorm", and the growth rate of unity slowed down significantly

Market source: Huasheng securities

According to the financial report data, the revenue of unity in the first quarter of 2022 was US $320 million, a year-on-year increase of 36%; The net loss was US $25.432 million. The performance basically met analysts' expectations. Unity's share price performance, the latest closing price has fallen 76% according to the high point.

However, unity released the sales guidelines for the second quarter and the whole year of 2022, which greatly disappointed the market. The company forecasts a sharp slowdown in growth in the second quarter, with sales expected to be between $290 million and $295 million, compared with analysts' forecasts of $359.65 million. The company's performance forecast means that the revenue in the second quarter will increase by only 6% year-on-year, significantly lower than the 36% growth rate in the first quarter.

At the same time, the company expects the annual sales of 2022 to be between us $1.35 billion and US $1.425 billion (the annual revenue increased by 22% to 28% year-on-year), lower than the US $1.49 billion predicted by analysts. Under the non GAAP standard, unity expects a loss of $60 million to $75 million for the whole year.

Today (May 11) as of press time, unity fell 27% in front of the market, indicating that the market is extremely optimistic about its future.

Source: newzoo

According to the statistics of newzoo, a market research institution, the global game market generated US $180.3 billion in 2021, an increase of about US $2.25 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and the proportion of mobile games reached 52%, an increase of US $6.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%. According to the data, mobile games are moving forward in the "carrying" game market.

61% of mobile games are developed using unity's game engine. In 2021, unity accounted for more than 70% of the top 1000 mobile games in the world.

Under such gorgeous data, why does the market expect unity to fall again and again?

Unity's advantage lies in the development of cross platform games. Compared with the main competitors unreal's main host and PC, unity undoubtedly perfectly grasped the upsurge of the mobile game market. However, the game developer told the editor: in the same work efficiency and time, the picture effect brought by UE4 is much better than unity. If you want to develop high-quality games on unity, you need strong technical support. A typical example is the company of original God, which has been popular all over the world in recent yearsMIHA Tourใ€‚

As the "shovel seller" of metauniverse, unity's dominance in the field of VR and ar software development is beyond doubt, but this performance guide surprised investors: can't this part of the profits be realized?

3ใ€ Meta universe business still has a long way to go

On April 28, meta, Facebook's parent company, released its first quarter results. According to the financial report, meta's revenue in the first quarter was US $27.908 billion, up 7% year-on-year, slightly lower than the US $28.2 billion expected by the market; The company recorded a profit of $7.465 billion, higher than the market estimate of $7.1 billion. The market is concerned that meta's dau has resumed its growth momentum: the average daily active users of Facebook's main platform are 1.96 billion, up 4% year-on-year, higher than the expected 1.95 billion.

The trading day after the results were released, meta rose by more than 17%. As of the latest closing price, meta retreated 48.27% according to the highest point,

Market source: Huasheng securities

Compared with roblox and unity, the hardware entrance in the hands of meta may be the magic weapon to win.

In the first quarter financial report, meta's reality labs achieved revenue of 695 million, a year-on-year increase of 30%, which is basically in line with market expectations. After the Christmas sales in the fourth quarter of last year, the market penetration of the top brand product Quest 2 is also accelerating. According to steamvr data, the market share of Quest 2 on steam platform has reached 47% (39% at the end of 2021), and the overall market share has been close to 60%.ย 

Source: Network

However, every family has its own difficult Sutra, and meta also has its own problems.

Musk's acquisition of Twitter is almost certain. According to musk, the most fundamental reason for his acquisition of Twitter is to create a platform for people to express free speech, optimize the existing algorithms of the social platform, and finally change the operation logic of the social industry. In other words, musk believes that there are many problems with current social software.

From Facebook's firm transformation into a "meta universe company", it can also be seen that Zuckerberg believes that the future growth space in the social field is limited and there is an urgent need for a new strong growth point. After purchasing oculus, a VR helmet manufacturer, for $3 billion in 2014, Zuckerberg once said when explaining the reasons for the acquisition: "if you miss the design of smart phones and their operating systems, many companies can only become appendages of Google and apple. In the future, you can control your destiny only if you have your own hardware platform and system." This also explains to some extent why Zuckerberg is fully betting on the meta universe. He hopes to get rid of the control of his own software by platforms such as apple and be able to build his own rules.

However, meta's meta universe business wants to make a large-scale profit and become the main source of income. Now it seems that it is far away. In other words, the valuation of meta universe depends more on the imagination of the market, which is an unstable "X" factor for meta's stock price.

Risk and Disclaimer: the above contents only represent the author's personal position and views, and do not represent any position of Huasheng. Huasheng cannot confirm the authenticity, accuracy and originality of the above contents. Before making any investment decision, investors should consider the risks of investment products in combination with their own conditions. If necessary, please consult with professional investment advisers. Huasheng does not provide any investment advice, nor does it make any commitment and guarantee.

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